No, Democrats are Not Going to Win Texas or Florida

A piece released yesterday in the Texas Tribune caused a stir online amongst Democrats, eyes gleaming with the potential of the ultimate political upset. The article reported that Kamala Harris trails Donald Trump by a mere five points in the Lone Star State, and that Ted Cruz’s competition for the Senate, Colin Allred, sits just two points behind. 

Taken on its face, the poll is terrifying. Republicans have to worry about maintaining TEXAS of all places? What happened to winning lean-blue Virginia?!

Democrats alleged that as demographics shift towards more Latinos and other minority voters in Texas, the state would go from ruby red to sapphire blue. Demographics, as they say, are destiny. 

But as new polls have shown, those demographics trends are not destined to hand Democrats the U.S. on a silver platter. 

Thus, the constant threat of a blue Texas seems to be yet another example of Democratic wishcasting rather than an inevitable reality. When totally-not-a-furry Beto O’Rourke ran against totally-not-the-Zodiac-Killer Ted Cruz in 2018, Democrats were convinced that Cruz was doomed. Media outlets cooed about his massive fundraising numbers and cheered as he beat Cruz in several polls. 

And then Beto lost. 

It was close, sure. And yet even with media adulation, a massive fundraising campaign, and a blue wave, Beto couldn’t beat Cruz. And things have gotten worse for Democrats since then. 

Per The Texas Public Policy Project from the University of Texas, Cruz’s approval in the state was underwater in 2018. Back then, 39% of voters approved of him while 41% disapproved. Cruz managed to flip those numbers by 2024, and now sits at 48% approval against 39% disapproval. 

So we’re expected to believe Cruz is going to lose a seat he won while unpopular in 2018 as a more popular senator in 2024? That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. 

Both 538 and Real Clear Polling show Texas as going for Trump. As Harris has seemingly reached her hype ceiling and can only go down from here, I anticipate those maps to get quite a bit redder in the coming weeks. 

Speaking of states that will continue to get redder as we move towards Election Day, let’s talk Florida. 

I can’t imagine a reality where Florida goes blue in 2024. Republicans now out-register Democrats in the state nearly 2/1, Ron DeSantis sits as one of the country’s more popular governors, and even the Florida Democratic Party admits it's on the brink of extinction.

The sudden and total shift from swing state to Trump country can be chalked up to a number of different factors, but the reality is that shift has happened. As much as Democrats would like to point out that abortion and weed are going to be on the ballot to bump them this cycle, that doesn’t make up for years of concerted effort to solidify Republican gains in the Sunshine State. 

This happens every cycle when political pundits get ahead of their skis and think they can pry a prize from their opposition. This is a bipartisan exercise and hurts just as much when it happens on our side. 

In 2022, my home state of Oregon looked primed for a change in leadership. Governor Kate Brown, consistently ranked dead last amongst her colleagues in gubernatorial approval, was term-limited out of office. 

Brown’s anointed successor, Tina Kotek, was also wildly unpopular with Oregon voters. Compounding Democrat’s issues in the state, Republican Christine Drazen was seen as a formidable candidate, and independent Betsy Johnson looked to siphon votes from the Democrats. 

Nike founder Phil Knight donated oodles of campaign funds to Johnson in hopes of helping her steal more Kotek votes. To crown things off, an enfeebled and unpopular President Biden at the top of the ticket really gave Republicans a hope that Oregon might have its first GOP governor in nearly 40 years. 

Election Day dashed those hopes handily. Even with all the political headwinds in the world, Oregon’s blue nature refused to yield and Republicans lost yet again. 

I see many similarities between endless Republican hopes of a red or Jesus, even a purple Oregon, and Democratic hopes for a blue Texas. But political inertia is a helluva drug and it’s going to be very difficult to overcome those entrenched trends. 

Maybe Texas is destined to become more competitive. Maybe Florida will become competitive again. For 2024, I wouldn’t count on it. 

But I won’t fault Democrats for continuing to hope, I’ve had my dreams dashed too many times to do that.