Europe's Election ‘Earthquake’ is Based on Faulty Logic

Did France and Britain really reject the right? Digging deeper into the results of the elections reveals that the right is actually on the rise.

The American political class has been abuzz this week over two monumental elections across the Atlantic. The French elections shocked the world after the left-wing, five-party New Popular Front coalition led by anti-Semitic communist Jean-Luc Mélenchon came in first place, followed by a three-party coalition helmed by President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party. The results denied third-place-winner Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally an absolute majority, though early polls had predicted an NR blowout. 

Meanwhile in the U.K., Keir Starmer obliterated Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party, ending more than a decade of Labour minority status. Labour now holds 412 seats, or 63%, of the 650 seats in the House of Commons compared to the Conservatives 121, the lowest in the party’s existence. 

U.S. politicos swooned over the results, ascribing the poor night for Europe’s right to voter repudiation of conservative values. But the reality is far more complicated and does not in any way shape or form show that voters are against these ideas, just that electoral chicanery took place.

After it became clear that the National Rally was surging in the polls, Macron and his New Popular Front allies enacted a plan to ensure Marine Le Pen would not be prime minister. In the words of CNN, “over 200 candidates from President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp and the left-wing alliance stepped down in a bid to avoid splitting the vote.” In other words, two rival political parties colluded to deny the third power. It was politically brilliant and utterly craven. 

Jordan Bardella, National Rally’s president, declared it was an “alliance of dishonor” that won the day, while the BBC noted one National Rally activist said “Nine parties had to join together to beat one, which still increased its number of MPs.”

That final point is essential; the National Rally made substantial gains in the face of political machinations. Prior to the most recent elections, the Rally had 89 seats in the National Assembly. Afterwards, they had 142 and increased their national vote share to around 40% of the electorate.

It’s also not clear whether they’ll need to wait long to get another shot at power. Mélenchon is already pushing to get the Prime Minister job, something that Macron is attempting to avoid. The French president rejected a request by current PM Gabriel Attal to resign citing a need to “ensure the stability of the country.” 

It is entirely possible that the anti-Rally coalition devolves into infighting leading to another round of elections to eventually determine a winner. All the while, Le Pen and co. advance their mission across the continent. Bardella may not be Prime Minister, but he does now lead the third largest bloc in the European parliament, Patriots for Europe.

Across from France in the British Isles, the exact opposite of the French elections ensured Labour seized control of 10 Downing. The Tories and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK spilt the conservative vote, allowing for large Labour victories. But looking deeper at the data reveals the surreal election result that gave Labour power. 

Despite winning just 34% of the popular vote, Labour has a comfortable 174-seat majority. Reform UK garnered slightly less than 14% of the national vote and ended up with just five seats. Starmer’s victory also came on the heels of abnormally low turnout. Starmer’s near 9.7 million votes were enough to push him over the edge, while then Labour head Jeremey Corbyn’s 2017 haul of near 13 million votes saw him lose the election. 

Less people voted for Labour this time around, while more people voted for parties like Reform UK. The media’s story may be that Labour destroyed the Tories, but the real story is that the right is quickly making gains in the European system. 

Indeed, the right is already ascendant in many countries across Europe. Geert Wilders' Freedom Party massacred its Dutch competition to take the top spot in Netherlands’ parliament. Giorgia Meloni continues to fend off threats to her rule as Italy’s top dog, and Viktor Orban’s Hungary serves as a model for the rest of the conservative West. 

If one were to simply examine the French and British elections on their faces, they might join the tittering political elites and rejoice as the “far-right” was successfully stymied at the ballot box. Those looking deeper will see the truth; the right is rising. 

The data is clear, Europeans are growing tired of attempts by the left to destroy their national identities and cultures through unfettered immigration. They’re tired of their quality of life tanking while politicians claim all they need is few Euros more. 

They’re tired of it all. And the right is ready to rise to meet them.